Current State of the Presidential Election *Final Update*

This takes the cake :

Does ACORN have an office in Indianapolis? You know they do.

Quote:
According to STATSIndiana, In 2007, Indianapolis/Marion County had an estimated population of 876,804. Of that number 232,607 were below 18 years of age, for a total of 644,197 people in Marion County/Indianapolis 18 or over and thus eligible to vote. (Indiana allows felons to vote as long as they are not incarcerated).

So we have 644,197 people eligible to be registered in Marion County/Indianapolis, and 677,401 people registered. Congratulations go to Indianapolis for having 105% of its residents registered!

Across the nation voter registration irregularities are coming to light. Many of these irregularities involving the former employer, ACORN, of one of our Presidential candidates, Barack Obama. Now it comes to light that Obama’s campaign has paid ACORN over $800,000 for “get out the vote” efforts so far this campaign season.

At some point, someone is going to have to look into this stuff.

Again this is from a blog so take it with a pinch of salt but given the revelations in the last few days...it might not be too far from reality.

Just In :

A friend of mine just informed The National Enquirer is coming out with a Big story on BO. May be A rumor (there have been quite a lot this season ) or May be something in support of him but thought might share it with you guys. I have nothing to prove it apart from phone talk.

This is just unreal. I saw a report today that a woman's name had been entered several times. God knows how many more applications were falsely duplicated. The good news is those applications have been turned to the FBI.

As far as the Enquirer goes. I seriously doubt that they'd be doing an expose on BO. They were making money off Palin by exploiting her daughter and all these so called family secrets, affairs, etc. I hope I'm wrong. They did expose John Edwards. Could be the almighty dollar and what sells.

The problem is that no one gives the National Enquirer any credence.

Taking some time out at lunch to write this post.

My personal unbiased opinion was that JM had the best debate performance last night. But no one take away the fact that inpsite of mere talking points and lacking substance BO does comes out having the temperament and poise. We all need to realise that 'ALL' factors overwhelmingly aid the democratic ticket and with the economy tottering the incumbent government is always at the receiving end. Before we start questioning why isn't JM putting up a good fight or why isn't he being strong enough we need to ask ourselves what are we doing to help the campaign. 'NOTHING' is lost and I stand by my initial analysis of the race being close. Yes BO HAS gained a lot of momentum in the battleground states and his strategy seems to be aimed at getting ev's than a bigger share of the popular vote. Inspite of it the race is very much fluid. BO has always over polled ..sometimes astonishingly high. Take my word ( For whatever its worth ) its the case even now.

Now for some good news :

Rasmussen has the race down to 4 pts... and JM for the first time gets 46% of the vote share since Sep.
Gallup has the race down to 6 pts and among likely voters it is a mere 2 pts....didn't we see a double digit margin just a few days back.
Zogby most always has shown the race within 5
IBD has it at 3
Hotline has it at 6
Battleground has it at 6

And in all the above scenario the Dem sampling advantage ranges from 6 to 12 pts. In 2006...one of the worst years for the repubs...the exit polls put the margin at 3.

Now according to me JM will carry the states of OH, IN , NC , FL, NV and CO. MN, NH and VA are true toss-ups. NM,PA looks like very difficult. The reason I am slightly apprehensive of VA is because of the large AA population and the strong Fav. opinion of Mark Warner who will influence the vote and looks set to win his senate bid.

It all comes down to the GOTV.

Here is an article which you will find interesting. Usually I do not put much credence to blogs especially if they have a known slant/preference but having a friend in the BO camp..I have got similar vibes.


http://www.redstate.com/diaries/david_rasbold/2008/oct/16/conversations-with-an-internal-pollster-for-o/

Sarah Palin ....is the unknown 'factor' and if JM is able to pull this thing ..it will be because of her.

Its imperative we do our bit.

Sign up to be a volunteer

https://secure.johnmccain.com/secure/marshallsignup.aspx

Make calls using the phone bank!
https://secure.johnmccain.com//Secure/Signup.aspx?smode=phonebank

Please sign up if you haven't already. It is a very simple process. I have made hundreds of call till date ..first for HRC in the primaries and now for JM in the GE. You can use your landline or cell phone. Just dial the number provided and speak to the person. If anyone has questions please revert.

WA State Voter wrote:SweetNightmare, you are oinly 9 years old?

Oh I just caught this...lol. I was only 5 but I meant 1994, not 2004. Typo fix. Lol.

independant_visionary wrote:Taking some time out at lunch to write this post.

My personal unbiased opinion was that JM had the best debate performance last night. But no one take away the fact that inpsite of mere talking points and lacking substance BO does comes out having the temperament and poise. We all need to realise that 'ALL' factors overwhelmingly aid the democratic ticket and with the economy tottering the incumbent government is always at the receiving end. Before we start questioning why isn't JM putting up a good fight or why isn't he being strong enough we need to ask ourselves what are we doing to help the campaign. 'NOTHING' is lost and I stand by my initial analysis of the race being close. Yes BO HAS gained a lot of momentum in the battleground states and his strategy seems to be aimed at getting ev's than a bigger share of the popular vote. Inspite of it the race is very much fluid. BO has always over polled ..sometimes astonishingly high. Take my word ( For whatever its worth ) its the case even now.

Now for some good news :

Rasmussen has the race down to 4 pts... and JM for the first time gets 46% of the vote share since Sep.
Gallup has the race down to 6 pts and among likely voters it is a mere 2 pts....didn't we see a double digit margin just a few days back.
Zogby most always has shown the race within 5
IBD has it at 3
Hotline has it at 6
Battleground has it at 6

And in all the above scenario the Dem sampling advantage ranges from 6 to 12 pts. In 2006...one of the worst years for the repubs...the exit polls put the margin at 3.

Now according to me JM will carry the states of OH, IN , NC , FL, NV and CO. MN, NH and VA are true toss-ups. NM,PA looks like very difficult. The reason I am slightly apprehensive of VA is because of the large AA population and the strong Fav. opinion of Mark Warner who will influence the vote and looks set to win his senate bid.

It all comes down to the GOTV.

Here is an article which you will find interesting. Usually I do not put much credence to blogs especially if they have a known slant/preference but having a friend in the BO camp..I have got similar vibes.


http://www.redstate.com/diaries/david_rasbold/2008/oct/16/conversations-with-an-internal-pollster-for-o/

Sarah Palin ....is the unknown 'factor' and if JM is able to pull this thing ..it will be because of her.

Its imperative we do our bit.

Sign up to be a volunteer

https://secure.johnmccain.com/secure/marshallsignup.aspx

Make calls using the phone bank!
https://secure.johnmccain.com//Secure/Signup.aspx?smode=phonebank

Please sign up if you haven't already. It is a very simple process. I have made hundreds of call till date ..first for HRC in the primaries and now for JM in the GE. You can use your landline or cell phone. Just dial the number provided and speak to the person. If anyone has questions please revert.

I agree with the Sarah Palin factor. No One saw her coming, and I think it threw O supporters off. At this point JM is timid, and running against a younger guy...it's imperative to have a fiery spirit and SP is just that.

I gotta say the anger over sarah Palin is puzzling to me. have you seen ‘the top ten most outrageous attacks on sarah palin.’ stunning stuff.

http://dougwead.wordpress.com/2008/10/17/the-top-ten-most-outrageous-attack-on-sarah-palin/#comment-1983http://dougwead.wordpress.com/2008/10/17/the-top-ten-most-outrageous-attack-on-sarah-palin/#comment-1983

Thats a perfect example of incompetency. When ppl feel threatened they start attacking and it basically means the tide is in our way.

PalinRocks7 wrote:Update: Obama is winning! Do you honesty think Republicans can win this election after 8 years of failure?

So now you're here? Wazzamatter, couldn't find anyone to answer you anymore at the other place?

Florida is now in the Red column on the Hedgehog Report http://www.hedgehogreport.com/polls2008.php?state=FL

Two points up but I think there is going to be a trend following the Smith dinner and the last debate

New Zogby Poll has BO-JM at 47.8 - 45.1 ..JM seems to have got good support following the Alfred Smith Dinner and Letterman show. A lot of the other polls show the race between 2-6 pts. Its time to double our efforts and keep the focus.

Yes we need to keep the focus. The electoral college continues to be a big problem as Obama has secured 246 electoral votes and with leaners has more than 270. We need to do something about McCain's numbers in swing states.
I'm starting to get really concerned that people are just so upset about the financial crisis that they are going to take it out on McCain.

The national polls are meaningless since we are a representative republic with an electoral college. If we voted straight numbers for the candidates, the NATIONAL polls would have meaning, but they don't. They are worthless since they don't reflect in any way, shape or form how the real election works - by STATE.
So if the national polls showed McCain up by 2, so what if the EC maps showed O with 270+ ?

Well, according to the trends and numbers on RCP and others, McCain was gaining. Now I see today, he's dropping, O is rising again. Must have been a fluke, an one or two day thing. O was losing a point or two, McCain gaining a point or two. Now it's reversed again.

The BO camps internal on PA have been unknowingly released to the media. It shows the race at 2. This was covered today on Fox news. As I have telling all along ...the campaign internals paint a totally different picture and to understand theie startegies you need to follow the money being spent on the states and the respective stops.

Ok...time for some number crunching. This is my Final update to the current state of the election since we go to the polls tomorrow.

I will try to keep it simple.

If we take the safe states into account we get BO-JM at 217-189.

Best Case Scenario for BO :

BO-JM -> 291 - 247 with BO winning NV, NM, CO, PA, NH, IA, MN, VA and JM winning OH, FL and MO

Best Case Scenario for JM

JM-BO -> 299 - 239 with BO winning NM, IA, MN and JM winning PA, NV, NH, OH, CO, FL and MO.

Based on my analysis this is where it might end up.

JM-BO -> 274-264

PS: The race has tightened in the last week.

To add BO will have the popular vote because of his advantage in states like CA, IL, NY..

Early insight to the race : Look for the race in NH, ME(2nd district), VA, GA, IN. If JM wins GA, IN outright and keeps it close in NH, VA, ME then we will have a favourable night. No matter what this will be a close race.

My prediction - Barry takes Iowa - barely. Big reason - ethanol.
HOWEVER, after the air-play last Friday on WHO radio where Barry was quoted as saying farmers are bad for our fitness and environment, this could change, but I doubt it. Reason I doubt is that the urban areas have now taken over, the rural vote here means little. Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Iowa City, Sioux City, etc. - they will add up for Barry. Even if Mac takes the rural areas by storm, Barry wins as the urban centers now trump rural and farm in Iowa.
Polk County always gets its way.

Time to pray folks!

Well the final poll and the one that really matters is taking place and in 3-5 hours we'll know how they turned out... with McCain/Palin being our President and Vice President Elects respectively with any luck.

<on knees praying>