Current State of the Presidential Election *Final Update*

I have been following the polls from different sources ( state wise + DC ) for a while. Here is my analysis based on an average reading. Note : Most of the data in the last week or so will be in BO's favor - economy + wall street crisis ( apart from the normal skewing from most pollsters ) - points to consider 1. Most of the new registrants factored in perceived to be inclined towards BO. Sampling data takes into consideration dem performance in 2006 without taking onto account minority of repubs stayed home in 2006 3. Repubs were less enthusiatic b4 palin selection 4. Repubs in general tend to keep low of their political ideology.

JM/SP - 253 ev

States in their column : AK, NV, AZ, UT, ID, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, GA, SC, NC, FL, KY, WV, OH, IN

BO/JB - 201 ev

States in their column : CA, NM, OR, WA, IA, IL, NY, DC, MD, DE, NJ, CT, MA, VT, ME, HI, RI

Toss up : CO, MN, WI, MI, PA, VA, NH

EV's needed to win : 270

Combinations for JM :

1 PA

2 MI + VA

3 MI + MN

4 MI + WI

5 MI + CO

6 MI + NH

7 VA + MN

8 VA + WI

9 VA + CO

10 WI + MN

11 MN + CO

12 WI + CO


Combination for BO :

1 PA + MI + VA + WI + MN

2 PA + MI + VA + MN + CO

3 PA + MI + VA + WI + CO

4 PA + MI + WI + MN + CO + NH

The debates are crucial. If BO does not have atleast 5-6 pt margin in PA,VA,CO,MI,WI by then(Oct 15th)... the election is for Mc Cain.

We need to do our bit. Call , Blog , Canvass, write to local newspapers!

Nice work! I printed it out for future reference. We need to PUSH HARD in the undecided states.

Question:
Why do the Democrats alway succeed at registering HUGE, no gargantuan numbers of new voters, they push, they call in their ground troops, they go door-to-door in HUGE numbers, they bring in new voters by the 100's of thousands, and we Republicans sit on our BUTTS watching polls and complain how many new voters the Dems have gotten, and wonder why new people aren't coming TO US?

If we ran a business, would we sit in the store, no ads, no signs, no hawking on the radio then wonder why we went broke?
Why don't Republicans do what the Dems to, get in their faces, register new people?
Are Republicans inherently LAZY and think things will come to them? Do they think that voters should just automatically come to them and we shouldn't have to work to get new voters?
The dems are KILLING us in new voters! They could win only based on voters registered this year! Seriously, if things were 50-50 in January, they'd win handily based only on the new voters they've registered.

What's up with that??

We had a very effective ground game in 2000. 2004 was weak, and 2006 was dreadful. Keep in mind, dems also have ACORN and other ground troops doing the footwork (lawfully and otherwise).

Excitement drives the grass roots work and the dems have it in spades (pardon the pun). Since SP joined, we have a new-found excitement.

On the home front, my kids George and Alina (7 and 10 y/o) had a lemonade sale selling JM/SP stickers. They sold $25 worth and plan to have another sale this weekend. Every bit helps.

BillD wrote:Question:
Why do the Democrats alway succeed at registering HUGE, no gargantuan numbers of new voters, they push, they call in their ground troops, they go door-to-door in HUGE numbers, they bring in new voters by the 100's of thousands, and we Republicans sit on our BUTTS watching polls and complain how many new voters the Dems have gotten, and wonder why new people aren't coming TO US?

I'm on the "outs" with local Republicans this year for supporting McCain instead of their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th choices, but in the past I have been part of registration drives. The reality is that the GOP is usually far more effective at registering new voters. We just do it differently by necessity.

The Democratic base is highly concentrated and easily identified. If you set up a registration booth just about anywhere inside the loop of just about any major city and register everyone who walks up (without even cheating!), you can be certain that you're registering Democrats with a rare exception. If you target only African Americans, you can be certain that you're registering Democrats with a rare exception. You don't have to know the people or learn their views. You can safely run a mass registration drive.

Republicans are more spread out and harder to identify by location or appearance. By necessity our registration drives are decentralized. We sometimes set up registration booths at events that Republicans typically dominate--car races, certain festivals, patriotic events, etc. We do most of our registration, though, person-to-person. We knock on doors in GOP leaning neighborhoods, and we talk to our neighbors. We also work within congregations although I'm not part of that. It's a one-at-a-time operation. Also, there is usually no incentive, reward, or pressure on individuals to produce registrations (like ribbons, pins, cash) and we don't use paid staff.

In the end, they wind up huge numbers of filled-out registration cards. We wind up with registered voters.

I agree with what Po1 has to say. Repubs follow a more traditional way of registering voters working in tandem with the RNC, RNCC, State bodies, local body, members, their family etc...If we look at any state republican support is psread far and wide ( wrt area covered ) whereas the dem base is centred around the major cities, urban households, college campuses, large towns. They tend to make use of unions, entities like Move On , ACCORN to help in the drive. Another major factor to consider ..the current president has an approval rating of 30% and 80% of the general public feels the country is moving in the wrong direction. we need to give a lot of credit to JM/SP for keeping this race competitive with a realistic shot at winning. They have managed to keep the dem advantage in registrations to within 6 percentage points ( and decreasing )Secondly according to my analysis..60-70% of the undecideds will vote for JM because if the current scenario have not made them to support BO ..nothing will. We just need to give them a reason to vote repub..soft support. A lot of the HRC supporters(even I am one among them) and disgruntled repubs have registered independant...they will stay at home but not vote for BO. we need them!

Note : I haven't included NV, NC in the toss up column inspite of some of the polls showing a tight race because of the demographic / dynamic. In NC the repubs are leading in senate as well as governor race. That bodes well. But haven't said this ..we have our task cut out. This is a fight to the finish with slight advantage - BO as of today...the toss up states are leaning his direction...lets get to work!

LOL - good points all, but GWB's approval rating is nearly double that of what congress' was a while back.
Wasn't it down to like 17% ?
Top that, or rather, bottom that!

Yikes, of a room of 100 people, only 17 thought congress was doing squat.

Agree but the dems will and have driven the point that GWB has been more ineffective, the current meltdown has been due to repub policies when it is actually Jimmy carter to be blamed for the whole fiasco(people have short memory), JM on record saying he does not really understand the economy gives them the added thrust but we need to counteract with BO on record saying he does not understand the stock market, Biden's coal gaffe ( big time in PA, WV, OH, VA)...BTW NP has a 9% approval rating and no one talk about it!...blog , send it to editors of local newspapers...the major news organisation are in the tank for BO ..don't waste time on NBC,CNN

BillD wrote:good points all, but GWB's approval rating is nearly double that of what congress' was a while back.
Wasn't it down to like 17% ?
Top that, or rather, bottom that!

It is true that congress has an unbelievably low approval rating, and we comfort ourselves with the knowledge that President Bush's low numbers have generally been double congress'.

Here's the rub, though. If you ask a person to rate "congress" the outcome is very low approval. BUT: If you ask a person to rate his or her own congressional representative, approval is much, much higher.

Ask a thousand people, "Do you approve of the job your congressperson is doing?" and "Do you approve of the job President Bush is doing?" Add up the congressional responses and the presidential responses and congress comes out far ahead. If this isn't a great argument for smaller government with more localized control, I don't know what is.

Please use this feature to make calls for JM/SP.

http://www.johnmccain.com/PhoneBank/?guid=0A517F03-C3ED-4A24-A14A-3BD9D5F32F2F


This election will be as tight as it can get. we need to do every bit to help out!

A new poll of VA (Pro BO - NBC) has JM leading by 3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/09/new_poll_in_virginia.html

SUSA has some good numbers for JM from KS,SC,KY. BO has WA in his corner. Hence no change in the analysis above.

It has been a very long time since WA went red. That doesn't mean it can't. It depends on Seattle's unions. They control the politics in Seattle.

Right now the Democratic mayor is on the outs with a lot of Seattleites because of his failure with Sonics move to OKC. So, is the Democratic Governor. I think we might get a Republican Governor. The Boeing Machinists Union (which is huge and very strong) is very angry at Gregoire for her lack of effort in their present strike. I don't know all of the details, but they are coming out against Gregoire big time so I think there might be some spill over from the Governor race to the Presidential race.

Both parties really ignore our corner of the country. E WA is pretty red. W WA is blue. I don't think that either party thinks that we are worth any campaign visits because we go so blue every voting cycle. However, there may be a change in the works.

Detriot news have confirmed that JM is pulling out of Michigan and will concentrate more on WI, OH and FL. The economic turmoil is having its initial effect. I believe we have a better shot at MN than WI mainly because of the approval ratings of Tim Pawlenty.

Another interesting note is : In NM BO cannot win without the hispanic or native american support. Among whites JM has consistantly led by a 55-44 margin. If white turnout is more than 65% he takes the state but currently in all polling data it is being estimated at 55-60%. Can anyone here tell me what is JM's problem with hispanics...I thought he would perform better than any other conservatives because of his stand on immigration which is more to the centre. The Ill-informed spanish ads by BO is having a great impact.

Hence my analysis of the current state of the race changes :

Dems - 219 ( 4 winning combinations )
Rep : 252 ( 7 winning combinations )

without toss -ups

dems - rep : 282-256 ( greatly influenced by the last 2 weeks ) but I am actually looking at 269 - 269(Personal intuition).

A new poll from SUSA has JM up by 1(47-46) in MN. As mentioned before JM has a real shot at MN and Tim pawlenty being a favourable Gov works to his adv.

There is some bad news from NH with Rasmussen showing Bo taking a 10 pt lead. It might be due to the financial crisis but things still remain fluid with respect to that state. My contacts in NH tell me that JM does enjoy good ratings there. and it is a state where in BO was shown to be leading by 10 on the day of the primary but went onto lose by 3 to HRC.

Please view this article ..it will make your day.

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/10/palin-biden-debate-at-washington.html

Where are you getting your data from...Fox News? Check Gallup...Obama's in the lead by 7 points! What happened to McCain in Michigan, I can't seem to find him anymore...oh he quit the race for that battleground state, packed his bags and headed off to OH and FL where is now TRAILING Obama in the polls.

Jesus Christ, troll! You sound like a broken record! So he's not in Michigain - BFD. Sarah WANTS to go back there and go door to door and talk to those voters herself. So she has not completely given up.

Siouxie wrote:Jesus Christ, troll! You sound like a broken record! So he's not in Michigain - BFD. Sarah WANTS to go back there and go door to door and talk to those voters herself. So she has not completely given up.

I think this is one of the trolls that the Obama is paying to infiltrate boards and cause problems. I think the moderator needs to take action.

Siouxie wrote:Jesus Christ, troll! You sound like a broken record! So he's not in Michigain - BFD. Sarah WANTS to go back there and go door to door and talk to those voters herself. So she has not completely given up.

If she does that's great. MI's unemployment is double of that of nearly every other state, they need help, badly.

WA State Voter wrote:

Siouxie wrote:Jesus Christ, troll! You sound like a broken record! So he's not in Michigain - BFD. Sarah WANTS to go back there and go door to door and talk to those voters herself. So she has not completely given up.

I think this is one of the trolls that the Obama is paying to infiltrate boards and cause problems. I think the moderator needs to take action.

Why do you get so upset when someone makes a post or response with the same type of comments as yourself yet it's the opposite opinion? Dish it out...be able to take it.

Palin Rocks ...I hope you do understand how this all started. Its quite apparent whom the majority of the members in this forum support, hence any kind of sarcasm will ofcourse create a stir. You have all the right to respectfully disagree and I on my own really have no problem with you being here but if your intention is to enforce your opinion then your energy is better spent elsewhere.

There are extreme right wing nutjobs as well as far left hacks. you might have had some terrible experiences(I don't dispute) but that does not allow you to vent out on others. We ALL need to be tolerant of other view points andlearn to respect their opinion. A bunch of 500 odd leaders should not be determinate of what you think about the majority of dems and repubs. republicans are not the devils and neither are the dems ..demi-gods. And if public sentiments did really matter we would not have had the bail out pass in the senate or house.

Now coming back to your comments on the analysis..well if you did not realise the post was made on the 23rd of sep. My assessment is not just based on an average of the daily tracking polls or the state level results by certain polling companies. I have followed them very closely in the dem primaries and even when I was part of the Kerry campaign in 2004. I have compared demographics in 2004 to 2008, looked at voter registration stats then / now and what the final result was in 2004. If we blindly depend on registration numbers we would never have had bush as the president. This coupled with exit poll data and how the final results turned out influenced my analysis. And while we are at it also wanted to mention that I have certain friends who do private polling for both the dem as well as repub party, a friend of mine is part of the BO campaign and hence some inputs are fed in from respective sources.

This race has been extremely fluid. The last 2-3 weeks has been the worst it could have been for JM. That has been factored and my last post does reflect it . It has the potential of getting worse and in which case could lead to a landslide but 30 days in politics is an eternity. Hold your cards and do not count the chickens before they hatch. I am more than willing to have a logical discussion but I hope this case stands rested!

This troll is a symptom of the entire Democratic Party. He/she even uses a deceptive name. Deception is the foundation of the present day Democratic Party. Phoney, through and through!!!

The information is out there. We need to work together and make this happen.

Volunteer with your local community, Volunteer with the McCain campaign directly, and Volunteer on this site.

http://www.geocities.com/victorymp08

We can make this happen, we MUST WIN!

Update: Obama is winning! Do you honesty think Republicans can win this election after 8 years of failure?

Yes, we do. Really. Let me tell you one more time just in case you didn't "get it" the first time - YES WE DO.
Need me to say it again?

I think he thinks that being Republican means we also LOVE Bush. Clue - many of us have very little to like about him.
McCain caused him no end of trouble, often lining up Democrats to vote AGAINST Bush!

I guess trolls don't look up historical poll data showing kerry winning more states than he actually took up to the last day! (as well as gore in many states)