NOT looking good for us..

RCP has REALLY dropped McCain in their averages. Big time.

http://realclearpolitics.com/

If this trend continues, O will be up by 4 or 5 come election day.
The TRUTH must come out! Who blocked the freddie and fannie fixes in 03 and 05?
Who helped O get started?
Who voted for the bridge - twice, and the last time, ignoring Katrina victims in the process?
Who has the most liberal voting record?
Who really DID go bi-partisan - and has a record to prove it?
Who is rated as a 100 as far as being tax-payer friendly?

These are verifiable facts, we must get them out. This is a BAD trend, IMO.

It'll be fine. I find it hard to believe that People can change there minds over just a day

I think McCain needs to start hitting exactly those issues hard and head-on. People are tired of generalizations and want these guys to get specific. Obama wouldn't know specific if it was tattooed on Michelle's behind, so if McCain could make it specific and personal for people, I think he would have real edge. Obama plans for "under $250,000 get a tax cut" may sound good, but what are the real numbers for real people? Specifically pointing out how average people are going to lose with this could knock some of the wind out of that for him. I would like to hear the term "Income Redistribution" a little more, too,

Actually Mccain is polling better in battle ground states! That is what matters!

This is true. While the RCP average (it's an average of all the polls IIRC) is going down, McCain is still maintaining the key battlegrounds, and even biting into Obama's lead in places like PA and even NY. What was a "sure thing" for 0bama now looks like a tough fight.

It's still early. What gains or losses we get now can be reversed or reinforced in the debates. Not to mention there always seems to be some kind of October surprise.

Looks to me like the battlegrounds have fallen - to O.

According to RCP, the map with no battleground states, meaning they are given to who they are leaning towards, it's a blow-out:

RCP Electoral Count 227 207 McCain +20
No Toss Up States 252 286 Obama +34

Again, it's way to early to tell. 50 days is a long time in these races.

Secondly, polls exist to help shape public opinion. Alot of polls do not accurately reflect those likely to vote. Polls should be used for entertainment purposes only to you and I, because the only poll that actually matters is the one on November 4th.

If they still bother you that much, then lets get the word out.

I agree that it's still too early. The polls are tight and will probably remain that way until most people really start to think about what's at stake in this election. Right now, people are getting the kids back in school and starting the school sports season. It's not time to panic, yet.

BillD,

Do you frequently post at DemocraticUnderground? I recognize the reasoning.

Bill

im not sure what this is reference to.. weve been kicking ass for 2 weeks now.. no new polls have come out with any kind of a big lead for obama and in almost every single new poll were winning in most of the battle ground states.. according to rassmussen and zogby..

According to both were leading in colorado, florida, ohio, and were tied in pennsylvania.. in fact according to the zogby poll were up in PA..

were fine.. no one is in trouble. we just have to keep up the fight!

BillD wrote:RCP has REALLY dropped McCain in their averages. Big time.

http://realclearpolitics.com/

If this trend continues, O will be up by 4 or 5 come election day.
The TRUTH must come out! Who blocked the freddie and fannie fixes in 03 and 05?
Who helped O get started?
Who voted for the bridge - twice, and the last time, ignoring Katrina victims in the process?
Who has the most liberal voting record?
Who really DID go bi-partisan - and has a record to prove it?
Who is rated as a 100 as far as being tax-payer friendly?

These are verifiable facts, we must get them out. This is a BAD trend, IMO.

It's not looking good for little Globama. States that were solidly Globama are now up for grabs. Only a 5-pt difference in NY. NY!!! Factor it in that Globama polls HIGH, is now taking a teleprompter to rodeos and looks like a big phony, I'd venture to say the Messiah stands a large chance of losing now.

Heres some zogby polls that came out yesterday

PA - McCain +5
Ohio - McCain +7
Florida - McCain + 9
Colorado - McCain + 5

im just saying that if obama loses PA.. hes done for..

Admin wrote:Heres some zogby polls that came out yesterday

PA - McCain +5
Ohio - McCain +7
Florida - McCain + 9
Colorado - McCain + 5

im just saying that if obama loses PA.. hes done for..

BINGO

Eowin wrote:BillD,

Do you frequently post at DemocraticUnderground? I recognize the reasoning.

?? No. LOL. I do lurk around and "see what the other side is up to now".
I'm just really worried. The most I've ever been. O scares the #$% outta me.

Polls tend to sway opinions and attract money to the "winning side".
Americans are notoriously fickle - they cheer for and support whoever is winning at the time. If folks think O has a great chance, many would stay home rather than vote for our team. When the Cowboys are winning, their fans cheer - when they are losing, their fans move on to a winning team. That's America.

OK, time to get my logic back! Time to put it back together.........
I've worked hard for my money, and don't want it given away. I'm for helping folks who need - but I guess I'm a bit mean - I only help those who make an attempt to help themselves. Show me an effort, and I'll come help pick you up, give you a boost.
Lay there and wallow, and I'll keep on walkin'. Yes, I'm mean. But maybe my Sunday School teachings are coming back......... God helps those who........
I don't need O telling me I make too much and thus should give it to others. I'll help - but it's MY choice.

I think we should not undermine what Bill is trying to outlay. We have been doing exceedingly well in the last 2 weeks but the current market turmoil, wall street crisis will have an impact. One or two statements that JM has made about the economy will be misconstrued. New Zogby poll has BO up by 2..nothing to feel dejected but we should always consider ourselves as the underdogs and never get complacent..the election can be won or lost even by 500 votes. I believe BO will have a good one or two weeks but the debates will be the turning point. Its very important for us to continue the fight. Its the 4th quarter folks with possibility of overtime ..Get ready!

Yeah, honestly the 2 polls i trust are gallup and rassmussen.. but WE HAVE TO FIGHT like were 5 points behind..

On 8/20 the EC was O=228, M=163. This was before Palin or the conventions. Since that day, RCP has recategorized states 15 times (solid/leaning Obabma, toss-up, solid/leaning McCain). Of those 15 recategorizations, 12 have gone toward McCain and 3 have gone toward Obama.

For Obama:
On 8/20, North Carolina moved from leaning McCain to toss-up
On 9/3, Minnesota moved from toss-up to leaning Obama
On 9/5, Indiana moved from leaning McCain to toss-up

All 3 of these recategorizations occurred before the RNC.

On 9/9, North Carolina moved from toss-up to leaning McCain and …
On 9/11, North Carolina moved from Leaning McCain to Solid McCain
On 9/14, Minnesota moved from leaning Obama to toss-up
On 9/13, Indiana moved from toss-up to leanng McCain

All 4 of these recategorizations occurred after the RNC and reversed ALL of Obama moves.

As a matter of fact, since the RNC, states have been recategorized 9 times. ALL 9 recategorizations have gone toward McCain!!!

As of today RCP EC is M=227, O=207

I'm not that worried as there is still September 30th's oil crash coming.

There is currently a ban on offshore drilling that is set to expire at the end of September. This is why the democrats in Congress are trying to get some kind of energy bill passed as after this date, it's open season on the coasts. Bush has already promised a veto on the bill on Congress as it locks up over 80% of our oil reserves offlimits.

60 dollars a barrel by November is not out of the question. That will translate to lower gas prices and THAT will be picked up by Bush with sprinkles of popularity splashing on McCain and Palin going into the general election.

It is the Electoral College that determines the next POTUS. See my post on the Rove Electoral College numbers. There is also a link to the map.

GALLUP is down for McCain but i dont understand how people can change there minds this quick. Obama was hoping for another Economy downgrade so he could talk bad about us

I try not to look at the polls (but I relapse and do) because I tend to be a handwringer....I can't believe that there are as many voters for Obama as is indicated. It baffles me how people can't see through him...can't see he is just simply not qualified to be our President. Sarah Palin has more administrative/governing experience than he does (we all know that). I find it difficult to believe that the numbers on the polls indicating such a close race are actually accurate. So, I just choose to believe they are totally wrong unless McCain/Palin are ahead. Israel elected a woman as Prime Minister today. If you look at her governing experience, Sarah Palin surpasses her. So, if anyone tries to tell me Sarah Palin can't govern this country, I just point at Israel. I think I will have those 2 shots of Tequila my friend suggested so I can forget the polls for today. Tomorrow is yet another opportunity to smile or wring my hands.

NOBAMA wrote:GALLUP is down for McCain....

Keep your eye on the state polls and ignore the national polls. This election will be won in the small towns. It will be those bitter rural voters who cling to God and guns who will carry the day.

Everyone needs to take a look at the electoral map and reach out to friends and family who live in those blue and toss up states. If you live in a blue state, I am in Virginia, commit 5 - 10 solid reasons why you will not vote for BO and why you will vote for John / Sarah. Start working those items into your conversations with everyone even supporters of John / Sarah. We have a huge advantage over the Obots in that we can talk about issues and not go nutzo when someone does not agree with us. If you present a good case in a respectful way you can make a real differance.

People saw Mac slipup and say something he should have never said to those who believe and have been told the economy is bad - "the fundamentals are strong". OOPS, major boo-boo.
They need to watch that stuff. We know O will jump all over that. Even if he believes, like I do, the basics are still there and strong, you just can't tell folks that. That's what clobbered him.
"Typical rich politician with lots of houses, believes the economy is really ok"
You know better, I know better, but we're a bit above average.
(Sorry, but when I see bits on TV where a 20 year old is shown a photo of Al Gore (back during the height of the election back then) and she had NO CLUE who he was........... not a clue, and some of the stuff Leno used to do with his Jay Walking segments, ya gotta dumb-down the campaigning.)

I really think this dive on Monday is what hit him. He slipped and said what he thought. He's going to have trouble recovering from that.
That and the fact O is spending much $$ on getting people going door-to-door. Where are the Republicans on this? Seems to me only the Democrats ever do this. We assume they will come to us, the Dems go and get 'em.
Sometimes I just wanna slap McCain's management team. Quit being arrogant and assuming that you can sit back.

Try to stay PUMPED. We have the best team and they deserve to WIN!
I truly believe O is a SOCIALIST and if elected it will be the downfall of America and Democracy as we know it.

Go McCain/Palin 08

I think if the story about Obama interfering with Iran ever gets any traction and the media other than Fox would talk about it it would make major shift that would seal it for McCain/Palin.