The polls show us in deep doo-doo thanks to meltdown?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667_pf.html

I personally think this particular poll is worthless. They added in 15% african americans to inflate this poll. To quote the article, "The survey includes additional interviews with randomly selected African Americans, for a total of 163 black respondents. The added interviews (commonly referred to as an "oversample") were completed to ensure there were enough African American respondents for separate analysis......"

Pure hogwash.

There are too many new variables lacking historical benchmarks this year. IMHO polls are nearly useless for '08. The one thing they can do is point to periodic gains or losses, but only when the polling method, sample, and weights remain constant throughout the campaign season. The RCP averages of polls makes up a little for the changing methodology and the outliers, but still even those are suspect. I literally laugh out loud when I see "+/- 3%" margin of error. I would guess just the unknowables create at least a 5% potential error.

It looks to me like McCain is down a little these past few days, but we can't know what he's really down from. And then there are the debates which are likely to change everything overnight anyway--one way or the other. And then there is the Palin factor. Right now people are beginning to doubt her, but the McCain camp is probably on top of it. When she comes out, she will erase all doubts.

And then there's the "surprise" factor. and the 527s just getting cranked up. and the "bradley effect." and the "ferraro effect." and... and... and...

I choose to handle the uncertainty by plugging along, making sure I'm doing my blogging and personal phone calls and email contacts. I'm in a solid McCain state so I'm focusing on other states and working on a few voters in PA. And I'm putting faith in a belief that when it comes down to it Americans just aren't stupid enough to elect Obama.